Since Ottawa was struck by the SNC-Lavalin storm in early February, a staggering number of opinion polls have been conducted. Data nerds such as myself aren’t whining, but a lot of surveys taken when public opinion is in flux creates a decent amount of sound –which can lead to considerable confusion for Republicans.
Case in point: polls in the past month alone have ranged from 13 stage CPC prospects (Angus Reid, L??ger) into a 4 point LPC lead (Innovative Research), with other polling firms somewhere in the midst (namely: Ipsos, Nanos and Campaign Research). Evidently, not all these surveys can be right in precisely the exact same time period, but it is by taking them all together and careful considering the regional breakdowns that we can hope to reduce the noise and see the actual data.
The entire list of federal polls can be found on this page.
To figure the subsequent 338 projection, polls are closely weighted by field date, sample size, and broken down each region of the country. The 338 model also has demographic data from the Canadian census in its own simulations to connect the movement of public comment per electoral district. Historical data of elections is also taken consideration in the design. Details of the 338 methodology and past performance of this model are available here.
Readers should know that this is not a forecast of the outcome of the next election, but instead a projection of where the major parties stand based on current data. When/if the data varies, the projection subsequently adjusts itself.
With 169 days before the federal election, this really is your 338Canada electoral projection for May 5th 2019.
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