This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests somewhat and I enjoy the new choice of contests and prizes. The most important GPP is now a $10 buy and $30k belongs to 1st location. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic quantity of play into cash games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m not loving this slate for cash games, and that I was just going to pick the main occasion stack for my money game play of the week. However, I can see the major event only scoring ~100 total points and once I’m stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the pile and I think Shane Young creates a great money game play. I really don’t understand how high of a ceiling he has because I really do think this struggle goes 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting completed. I think he has a top floor since this battle should move all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I really do think he has 100-point upside into a decision, and that I also think he could complete this battle. But I feel like he is a secure play for 80+ and that is why he’s my money game play of this week rather than my GPP play. GPP play of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only way Kang loses this fight is by becoming KO’d. He must be the far superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the feet too. I expect him to look for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does have heavy power in his hands I think Kang includes a floor of 0 things, but this is exactly why he is my GPP play of the week rather than my cash game play of this week. In cash, I want to lock in high flooring and that is not what we’ve got here. I enjoy this for GPPs because if he loses $9.4k it will not matter how many points he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a gain if he dropped a determination at that price and scored 30-40 points, we would simply need to hit on our other spots. We do not want 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 because he has 100+ upside since he is going to be the fighter wanting to grapple and I could see him becoming multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he has a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to endure too long using Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I enjoy him as a pivot away from a big name who might be popular.
Underdog play of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually picking Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this fight to stay position for as long as it continues. Personally, I see this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that is the case, then I believe Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to work with and he will land a reasonable amount of shots. In addition, I believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that might not place him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or conclusion, he’ll probably be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That’s why he is my underdog drama of this week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must stay on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I have chosen him as my fade every time he’s fought so that I am going to roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score highly is by getting a win. He does not strike at a high enough speed to score highly in a decision and he won’t be heading for any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that might not be adequate to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x from a fighter once I roster them and with his $7.9k price label, so I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 54-34 for +177.13un (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)