01/09/2019

BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN


This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card at Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests somewhat and I like the new choice of contests and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $30k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of play into cash games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m not loving this slate for cash games, and that I was just going to pick the main occasion stack for my money game play of this week. However, I can see the major event just scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young creates a great money game play. I really don’t know how large of a ceiling he’s since I do think this struggle goes 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting completed. I think he’s a high floor since this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter anyplace and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I really do think he’s 100-point upside into a decision, and that I also think he could complete this fight. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that is why he is my money game play of the week rather than my GPP play. GPP drama of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only real way Kang loses this battle is by becoming KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the feet too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara does not have any floor game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does possess hefty power in his hands I think Kang includes a floor of 0 points, but that is why he’s my GPP play of the week and not my money game play of the week. In money, I wish to lock in high flooring and that’s not what we’ve got here. I like this more for GPPs because if he loses at $9.4k it will not matter how many things he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we might still come away with a profit if he dropped a decision at the price and still scored 30-40 points, we would simply need to hit on our other areas. We don’t want 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside because he is going to be the fighter wanting to grapple and I could see him becoming multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I think he has a 1st or 2nd round entry and I don’t expect for him to endure too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I enjoy him as a pivot from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog play of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this struggle to stay position for as long as it continues. Personally, I find this going the distance and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is true, then I think Gastelum gets the maximum floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a reasonable amount of shots. I also think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that may not put him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or conclusion, he’ll probably be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That is why he’s my underdog play of the week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to stay on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have chosen him as my fade each time he has fought so that I will roll with it . The style Alvey brings to the table is simply not valuable for DraftKings. The only way Alvey can possibly score tremendously is by getting a knockout win. He does not strike at a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and he won’t be going for almost any takedowns. Even if he receives a decision win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that might not be adequate to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x out of a fighter when I roll them and with his $7.9k price label, so I want at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 54-34 for +177.13u (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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