28/10/2019

DFS NHL Strategy: Analyzing Line Matchups


I mentioned in my”How to Win Playing DFS Hockey” article that Brett and I are different than many DFS NHL analysts because we take some time to consider line matchups when doing our nightly DFS research.
There his so much more to DFS NHL than picking players from good teams who play bad teams. I mean, it’s absolutely possible for a random drama to hit, and rather likely if that random drama comes with a good player. Nevertheless, with pricing becoming tighter and tighter, along with a seemingly abundance of options with these big 10+ game slates, it’d certain behoove one to narrow things down whenever you can.
Last year, war-on-ice. Com was the place. This season, I am putting in a great word for those men at naturalstattrick.com. Through Natural Stat Trick, you can analyze each game by seeing a participant’s linemates, along with a player’s opposition. Remember, in the National Hockey League, the Road team is needed to put five players on the ice prior to each puck drop. The Home team has the benefit since they possess the ability to matchup any of their five players with the Away team’s five players. This may force potential mismatches, such as a Home team fitting the opposing group’s 4th line using their #1 line.
Generally, there will be three lines you would like to think about for any group. Ordinarily, it’s likely to become a #1 or #2 line, but occasionally, #3 lines will get fantastic matchups as well. Most of the time, it is possible to dismiss #4 lines because #4 lines will nearly always matchup against #4 traces, and regardless, they don’t get enough ice time or power-play time to justify enjoying in DFS. More often than not, Home teams will fit the opposition’s #1 lineup with their own #1 line. Yes, coaches have a tendency to lack a fantastic deal of imagination with line matchups, however there are definitely exceptions.
For example, Winnipeg Jets Head Coach Paul Maurice prefers to matchup the opposition’s #1 line with his 3rd lineup featuring Brandon Tanev, Andrew Copp, and Adam Lowry. A complete illustration of how this situation works out from a DFS standpoint is through the Jets game against the Chicago Blackhawks last Monday.
When it comes to the Blackhawks, it is clear that their #1 line is the line that contains Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. On paper, a lineup with Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and random left-winger is going to be preferred against the likes of Brandon Tanev, Andrew Copp, and Adam Lowry. Yes, the end result didn’t work out contemplating the Hawks got shutout, but Chicago’s top line had the advantage from a puck possession perspective with a 60-40% advantage in CF% (Note: CF stands for”Corsi For” while CA stands for”Corsi Against”. The term”Corsi” denotes any type of shot attempt( no matter if it’s on web, or has blocked).

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