19/10/2019

LATE CHANGES TO UFC 234, SAM ALVEY IN FOR RYAN SPANN


UFC 234 is set to occur less than fourteen days from now at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia. Together with the card fast coming up, there have sadly been some accidents and a few fights have been affected. Here’s an update on the latest struggles for UFC 234 in today’s MMA odds and ends.
Sam Alvey vs. Jimmy Crute, UFC 234
Due to an injury to Ryan Spann, Sam Alvey has stepped on short notice and will take on rising prospect Jimmy Crute at a light heavyweight conflict. News of the new matchup was first shown by news.com.au.
Alvey (33-11, 1 NC) is 10-6 overall in the UFC while dividing his time between middleweight and light heavyweight. Since moving up to 205lbs, Alvey has gone 2-1 with wins over Gian Villante and Marcin Prachnio along with a sudden TKO loss to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in his last struggle. Alvey has settled to the role of gatekeeper, and despite the reduction to Nogueira he stays a stern test for any up-and-coming in the light heavyweight division, making Crute the perfect opponent. Note that Alvey was initially set to fight Gadzhimurad Antigulov in UFC Fight Night 145 prior to being pulled for this matchup.
Crute (9-0) looked great in his UFC debut as he submitted Paul Craig. He is only 22-years older and has lots of confidence as an undefeated potential. He is the native and contains all the pressure on himbut he hasn’t shown any signs of not being able to fulfill the hype. From all reports, Crute seems like he’s a few of the qualities of a future light heavyweight title contender.
As for the chances, Crute was a +110 underdog against Ryan Spann, but I would have bet him at those odds as I saw value there. Against Alvey, I don’t find any reason why Crute wouldn’t be a huge favorite. I would peg him around -300 in this fight, and that I see him beating Alvey and continuing his march towards the top-15 rankings.
Callan Potter vs. Jalin Turner, UFC 234
Because of an injury to Alex Gorgees, Callan Potter will make his UFC debut on short notice when he takes on Jalin Turner at UFC 234. Nolan King broke the news.
Potter (16-7) is a local Aussie fighter and was riding an eight-fight win streak prior to being submitted by Marcin Held at ACB in his last struggle. He actually has quite a lot of experience, having fought Jake Matthews before in his career. But he’s got no notable wins. Note that all of Potter’s fights have ended inside the distance — win or lose.
Turner (7-4) was pumped out by Vicente Luque in his UFC debut. This was definitely going to be a challenging matchup for Turner, and I am still not sure why the UFC put up him as a sacrificial lamb there. All seven of Turner’s career wins have come by stoppage, though he’s been pumped out three times himself which is of course concerning.
Turner is the larger name and had a full camp so I do expect him to be preferred, but I believe Potter has a fairly good chance here. Nevertheless, this might be a fight where the props might be the best bet, along with the prop I’ll be on the lookout for is the fight ending within the distance, as I fully expect someone to get knocked out.
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