16/10/2019

NASCAR at Dover odds, key stats, bets to consider: Three drivers to fade in Monday’s matchups


There is not any other track in NASCAR quite like Dover International Speedway. The 1-mile concrete monitor in Delaware includes high banks and multiple grooves, like Bristol’s half-mile layout but with high-banked straightaways.
For handicapping purposes, Dover is a exceptional monitor, but results from Bristol ought to be taken under consideration, as well as tracks that have utilized the 750-horsepower, no-aero duct package this year (more on that below).
It does not appear to matter where NASCAR races this past year, Kyle Busch has been among those top-3 favorites, and he’s the No. 1 power-rated driver for oddsmakers. Busch is not only leading the Cup Series in victories (three) this season, but his 10 directly top-10 finishes to start the year has only been accomplished by four other drivers, and not because Morgan Shepherd in 1990.
Busch is a whopping 3/1 to win Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (1 p.m. CT, FS1) and tough to fade considering he has 17 top-10s, such as 12 top-5s, in his last 28 series starts at Dover.
Update: The Gander RV 400 has been postponed until Monday at 11 a.m. CT on FS1
Chase Elliott, a week’s winner at Talladega, and slumping contender Kyle Larson would be the only two drivers to have their futures chances to win the Cup Series championship adjusted this week. Both motorists are worth fading from the matchups (listed below), however.
Elliott is the harder market considering he’s the latest winner in the Monster Mile and has five top-5 endings in six series races in Dover, but Chevrolet has been really disappointing this year out the superspeedways and we love to fade drivers off wins.
Larson, who hasn’t won a race at the Cup level because the 2017 fall race in Richmond, proceeded from 20/1 to 25/1 to win November’s title. Larson opened the season 7/1, but enters this weekend’s race in Dover sitting outside of the playoff standings in 21st. Talladega’s wreck marked the third time in six races Larson has shattered from a race. Other results throughout that span comprise a 12th-place showing at Fontana, 18th-place at Martinsville and 19th in Bristol.
Dover rules package, recent results
For the fifth time this year, Cup drivers will race with an engine-producing 750-horsepower and no aero ducts. The four previous races were Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond, with Joe Gibbs Racing winning three and Brad Keselowski top 446 of all 500 laps at Martinsville.
Recent Dover winners
2019 fall: Chase Elliott
2018 spring: Kevin Harvick
2017 fall: Kyle Busch
2017 spring: Jimmie Johnson
2016 fall: Martin Truex, Jr..
Odds to win Gander RV 400 at Dover
Opening possibilities provided by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH 3/1
Kevin HARVICK 4/1
Brad KESELOWSKI 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 8/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Clint BOWYER 12/1
Kurt BUSCH 14/1
Chase ELLIOTT 12/1
Denny HAMLIN 14/1
Aric ALMIROLA 18/1
Ryan BLANEY 20/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 20/1
Daniel SUAREZ 50/1
Austin DILLON 80/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Alex BOWMAN 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
William BYRON 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 300/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 300/1
Daniel HEMRIC 300/1
Ryan PREECE 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 1000/1
Notable NASCAR betting matchups at Dover
Opening possibilities provided by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH -125
Kevin HARVICK +105
Denny HAMLIN -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Kevin HARVICK -140
Brad KESELOWSKI +120
Kurt BUSCH -110
Chase ELLIOTT -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Clint BOWYER -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
NASCAR in Dover bets to Think about Opening possibilities provided by Westgate SuperBook
Hamlin (-110) over Elliott
We mentioned fading Elliott above and our pick to beat him is Hamlin, who’s enjoying a resurgent season. Hamlin has finished fifth all four races with Sunday’s package and contains five top-10 endings in the previous six Dover races, including a runner-up past fall.
Truex Jr. (-110) over Keselowski
Truex includes five top-10s and four top-5s in the previous six Dover races, leading 387 laps at that moment. Truex also finished second at Phoenix on this bundle and won at Richmond after leading a race-high 186 laps. While Keselowski dominated Martinsville, he has been 19th in Phoenix, 18th at Bristol, and seventh at Richmond.
Daniel Suarez (-110) over Jimmie Johnson
How the mighty have fallen. Seven-time champion Johnson returns to the website of his latest victory, where he is the sport’s all-time winningest driver with 11 victories. But Johnson is 16th in the series standings and has struggled the past two seasons. Suarez calls Dover his favorite track, and he is averaging a 6.7 finish over four starts. The Mexico native owns the fourth-best typical running posture among active drivers at Dover and contains the third-most laps in the top 15.

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