NEW YORK YANKEES 100-62 | 2019 Projection: 102 Wins
WIN 62 percent OF NEUTRAL FIELD SIMULATIONS
The regular season went as expected. They won 100 games versus an anticipated win total of 100. They won 58 percent on the street which was expected (58 percent ). They won 53 in the home and were expected to win 53. Our projected document for next season is similar. They are averaging 102 wins per sim and are estimated to finish first in the American League. There’s not a lot of gap between them and the #3 ranked Red Sox that are projected for 100 wins. They’re a competition with a 15.2% probability of winning the World Series according to simulations and a 25% chance of accomplishing the sequence. Even with all the juice, they are a good futures value with championship chances of 6/1, 14.3percent and odds to win the AL in 11/4, 26.7 percent. They’re the favorite to win the AL East at 53.5% but they aren’t a good value to win the branch at 4/5 (55.6percent ) odds.
Had they not had a firesale of the top talent this off-season they’d have been projected to win almost 90 games and could have been actual contenders. Their 103 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.4 over what oddsmakers’ cash line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They won 70.4% on the road that was much better than anticipated (58.9%). They won 46 at home and were expected to win 53.8. Expect a similar record following season. In our most recent simulations they’re averaging 102 wins and are estimated to finish second in the American League. There’s not a lot of gap between them along with the #3 rated Red Sox that are projected to get 100 wins. They are a contender with a 18.9% probability of winning the World Series according to simulations and a 32% chance of reaching the sequence. Even with the juice, they’re a good futures betting value with championship chances of 6/1, 14.3% and odds to win the AL in 11/4, 26.7%. The Astros are not as great as the Yankees if they had the same schedule and same branch. But given their overwhelming favourite status to win their division (84% in simulations. 1/8, 89% likelihood ) they have a much greater chance of preventing the Wild Card game and subsequently have the best chance of winning it all out of the American League.