20/10/2019

Week 2 NFL Against The Spread Picks: Road Dogs


Trends worth Tracking:

DOGS at Week 2 of the NFL went puppies and 11-5 proceeded 7-3-1 ATS of this season in Week 1. ROAD teams are 10-5-1 ATS so far dogs moved 1 also. I expect additional profits . Dogs ATS last season in the first fourteen days went 19-13. Jacksonville is a puppy, they are on the street – this game is circled for motives for me personally.

Upgrade/Downgrade
The specialists that I trust over at TeamRankings.com have downgraded Houston 0.4pts from Week 1 to Week two and moved them down one rank to the #11 energy rated team in the NFL. As for Jacksonville, they are downgraded -1.1pts from Week 1 to Week 2 transferring down them two places on the #20 energy rated team in the NFL.

Defensive Ratings:
Jacksonville’s didn’t fare well vs the Chiefs in Week 1. They enabled 491 yards and 40 pts using the Chiefs averaging 12.3 yards per stage. Jacksonville’s defense performance rating was 15 percent, which means it took 15 percent of their Chiefs’ total yards to dent 6pts.
Houston’s D did not fair much better vs New Orleans in Week 1. The Texans enabled 510 yards into Drew Brees and 30pts. Houston finished the game. Based Week 1 numbers Houston is the # 23 rated defense in the league on along with Jacksonville is the #30 defense in the league.

Jacksonville Net/Net
Jacksonville’s offense did not look completely useless without Nick Foles who is targeting a return for Week 11 and left with a busted. Until then the Jags will go with the rookie Gardner Minshew who didn’t have a terrible game vs the Chiefs.
Albeit they both were in garbage time, minshew moved 22/25 throwing for 275 yards and two touchdowns. Leonard Fournette rushed for 66 yards, DJ Clark Jr’d 146 yards. Jacksonville was Net/Net positive for Week 1 heading for 8.6 yards per play along with 8.2 metres against. A Net/Net score of +0.4

Houston Net/Net
Houston’s offense in Week 1 did not look overly exciting. Deshaun Watson went 20/30 casting for yards and 3 touchdowns. Carlos Hyde rushed for 83 yards on 10 attempts, also DeAndre Hopkins had 8 receptions for 111 yards.
On the other hand, the true downside for the Texans came from the defense who enabled 510 total yards . The Texans finished the game with 7 yards per play on offense and 7.8 yards against on defense. A Net/Net negative evaluation of -0.8.

AlMac’s Power Rating:
From what I found from Week 1 and blending it that I have from your 2018 NFL season. I have Jacksonville the #13 rated team in the NFL, even with the loss of Foles I still think this group is tremendously underrated in my opinion.
They were fairly terrible last year as a whole allowing a typical 5.1 yards per play but only profiting 4.8 on offense behind the exiled Blake Bortles. Despite the fact that it is really hard to rate teams from only 1 week of a season, and particularly against a team such as the Chiefs whose offense is so good and protection is so bad. I like what I saw in Jacksonville, I enjoyed what I saw out of Fournette, DJ Clark and Chris Conley.
I think they have some weapons that are underrated. I think they are well coached with Doug Marrone on the sideline. You look at Houston, I have to say pretty much the exact opposite. I think Bill O’Brien is a dreadful football trainer and it is a huge reason why I am not high on Houston at all this season.
I’ve Houston. A small downgrade from what I observed at the end of last year in which they ended up finishing as the #16 team. Last year overall they were a minor net positive group on crime with a score of +0.1, according to which I found at Week 1 it will be the exact same for Houston.
I really don’t think Watson or Hopkins could do enough for this team to reevaluate the overall malpractice that takes place about the Houston sideline. This team is blacklisted for me until something proves otherwise.
I’ve Jacksonville as +3.8pts greater than Houston on a neutral field, also +0.8pts better than those on the road. I believe that the Jags can win this match. This line opened -9.5 and has simply proceeded to -8.5 and now back to -9 where it sits at most places.

Give me Jacksonville +9 (-110) through Pinnacle

Sunday, September 15, 2019 – 01:00 PM EDT
As mentioned concerning the dogs ATS in Week 2 of last year. I am also looking at a Week 1+2 trend from last year at which the bottom 8 futures teams went 7-8-1 straight up, +3.29 units around the money.
The bottom 8 futures teams at the very first week of the year this past year went 15-9 ATS also. To go back much further, because 2017 – the lowest 8 teams in the futures market pre-season have gone 19-12-1 ATS in Week 2 of the 2017 and 2018 year old. HOME teams in Week 2 of the NFL season last year moved 11-5 up to +2.66units.
Again dogs are 9-6-1 ATS so far in 2019. Dogs have gone a combined 19-13 ATS in Week 2 of the past two seasons and also the lowest 8 futures teams this past year at the initial 5 weeks of the year went 22-16 ATS.
The Cowboys are a high 8 futures team to begin the season that has some substantial tendencies to proceed with. Fading the top 8 futures that the first 3 months of last season bettors moved 14-10 ATS and 17-13 at the first 4 weeks of the year.
Upgrade/Downgrade.
TeamRankings.com upgrades the Cowboys a full 3 spots up into the #12 position after Week 1. Washington moves up one place up to the 28 rated team in the NFL according to their energy ratings.
Defensive Ratings:
Dallas completed Week 1 letting 470 yards against the NY Giants, but merely allowing 17 points. The Cowboys finished with a defensive efficiency rating of 35.2% significance it required the Giants 35.2percent of the overall yards to dent 6pts against them.
Finishing the match, holding the Giants to an average of 27.6 yards per stage. They’re the #11 ranked defense in the league according to my ratings after Week 1. Washington is your #27 ranked defense in the league according to my evaluations after Week 1.
They let 436 yards and 32 points from the Eagles. Finishing the game with a defensive efficiency score of 18.7% and in the long run, the Eagles averaged 13.6 yards per point against Washington.
Washington Net/Net
Washington comes out of Week 1 with a net efficiency score of -3.5% but an overall positive net metres average. Washington had a mean of 6.9 yards per play. Case Keenum went.
Defensively they gave up a total of 436 yards but just 6.1 yards per play normally. Net/Net this team has a +0.8 rating. Last year Washington ended with an average of 5 metres per play and allowed 5.7 yards per play against. A net rating -0.7. Based on the early appearances, this protection may be better than expected.
Dallas Net/Net
The Cowboys come out of Week 1 having a net efficiency rating of +18.1percent and complete a net favorable metres average. Dak Prescott threw for 405 yards in Week 1, Dallas needed a combined 89 yards rushing and a total of 494 yards on crime and average of 2 metres per play.
They only grew up 470 yards total contrary to, an average of 7.1 yards per play against. A Net/Net rating of +0.9. This team ended last season with an average net rating of +0. Gaining an average 5.4 yards per play and giving up an average 5.4 yards against. Dallas appeared improved without a doubt, on both sides of the soccer in Week 1.

AlMac’s Ability Rating
After viewing Washington in Week 1 I believe that they are far better than what the market expects them to become this season. Washington advancing from last year tremendously is looked at by you when comparing the 2 defenses, and you look at Dallas who gave up more yards than Washington did however allowed far fewer things.
In the long run, I don’t believe there is separating these two teams within an game up. I only rank the Cowboys around +0.3pts better than Washington at this point. I believe with the home-field benefit the Redskins might get an edge in this one to be honest.
This line must be according to my numbers however, it sits at today this line is far off and there is a whole lot of value on Washington. This one opened Redskins +7 and has just proceeded into +5.5, I believe there is roughly 8pts of value to Washington ATS here. I think this match could be won by them as well.

Require Washington +5.5 (-102) via Pinnacle
Upgrade/Downgrade:
TeamRankings.com moves Buffalo up 3 places to the #23 ranked team in the NFL. Since the Giants fall 3 places to be the team ranked in the NFL according to their power ratings.
Defensive Ratings:
Buffalo allowed only 223 yards from and 16pts against the Jets last week. Finishing with a 37.4% defensive performance rating. They’re the #7 rated defense so far in 2019.
The Giants let 494 yards versus Dallas along with 35 points, an average of 14.1 yards per point for the Cowboys. They finish with a defensive efficiency score of 17.1percent and will be the #29 rated defense as per my ratings so far.
Buffalo Net/Net
Buffalo comes out of Week 1. Last week, the Bills put up 370 total yards against the Jets. Josh Allen threw for 254 yards moving 24/37. Josh Brown travelled for 123 yards with 7 receptions along with one touch down.
Devin Singletary went for 70 yards rushing on just 4 attempts. They averaged 5.9 yards per play on offense and gave up 3.4 yards a play on defense. A Net/Net evaluation of +2.5. The Bills might be a group to back in the 2019 season.
NY Giants Net/Net
The Giants come from Week 1 having a web efficiency score of -18.1%. They let 494 yards . The Giants went to 470 yards on offense but only scored 17 points and ended the match with an average of 7.1 yards per play. They come from the week with a Net/Net rating of -0.9. The Giants defense could be their Achilles heel all year.
AlMac’s Power Rating:
Call me mad but I’ve Buffalo. Buffalo finished last year with a mean of 4.9 yards allowed per play defense. The next best average in the league.
They just gained a mean of 4.7 yards over the offensive side of the globe, but when they can improve even marginally on offense this year from last season – I think they’ll be able to cover a whole lot of things spreads in months to come. I’ve got the Giants rated as the team in the league.
According to my numbers this game ought to be Buffalo -5.5. I’ve got the Feedback about 8.5pts better than the Giants on a neutral field, +5.5pts greater than those on the road. The line opened as the Giants being -2.5pt favorites and has since transferred into the Bills being -1.5 pt favorites in the road. I’ve Buffalo.
The bet is on Buffalo +1.5 (-110) through Intertops

Sunday, September 15, 2019 – 04:25 PM EDT
Trends worth monitoring:
The Saints will be the DOG (11-5 ATS in Week two of 2018 and 9-6-1 ATS so far in 2019), (7-8-1, +2.21units in Week 2 of 2018) The Saints are also the ROAD DOG (7-3-1 ATS up to Now from 2019) (ROAD Teams 10-5-1 ATS in 2019)
Upgrade/Downgrade:
TeamRankings.com moves the Saints 1 place to the #4 spot in their power evaluations downgrading them just under half-point after Week 1. The Rams are also downgraded 1 spot.
The Rams are actually the rare event on TeamRankings where they’re upgraded +0.2pts but because of the Ravens being upgraded +3.9pts and moving up 11 places to the #3 area. A slew of teams move down the positions for this , including the Rams.
Defensive Ratings:
Neither of these two teams looked great on defense. The Rams allowed 343 yards to the Panthers and also gave up 27 points. They finished with a defensive efficiency score of 22.2 percent. New Orleans enabled 414 yards to the Texans and enabled 28pts.
They finished with a defensive efficiency rating of 21.4 percent. A week, neither team looked special. I have the Rams since the Saints since the # 21 rated defense in the league after Week 1 along with the # 18 ranked defense in the league.
New Orleans Net/Net
The Saints come out of Week 1 using a net efficiency score of 1.4percent and they are a net positive group on yards per play. The Saints went to 7.8 yards per play offense vs the Texans and allowed 7 metres per play against on defense. A Net/Net rating of +0.8.

LA Rams Net/Net
The Rams finish using a net efficiency score of 2.3% nevertheless they weren’t a positive group about yards per play after Week 1. The Rams went for 4.8 yards per play against the Panthers but gave up 5.4 yards per play on defense. A Net/Net rating of -0.6.
The Power Rating of alMac:
Each of the boxes are checked by the Saints. They are the underdog, they’re the street group and they are the energy. Not to mention this is the greatest revenge spot for the Saints who hope to place the past to break and take care of business vs the Rams in week 2 and make no doubts about the simple fact they need to have gone to Super Bowl last year after losing to the Rams in controversial fashion at the NFC title game this past year. I’ve the Saints as the #6 rated team from the NFL as per my ATS strength ratings.
I think there is a ton of worth on New Orleans in this spot. I am not large on the Rams this season particularly if they will continue to have injury issues with Todd Gurley. The Rams were not striking to me whatsoever in Week 1. I have them ranked as the #21 team in the NFL going into this game.
I’ve New Orleans around +4.5pts better compared to the Rams to a neutral field and +1.5pts greater than those on the street. This match should be Saints -1.5 in my opinion. It has taken money and this line opened in Rams -3 and moved indoors 3 to 5 -2. I think this line is off. You’re getting about 3.5pts of worth to the Saints here.

It is the Saints +2 (-110) via Intertops
Arizona comes into Baltimore and it’s a conflict of vs worst. The Ravens come into this game with a league-leading 8.8 yards per play avg coming off that dominant win against Miami in Week 1. Baltimore also only permitted 4.3 yards per play with. Arizona, on the other hand, sit as the 27th ranked team following the 1st week of the year from the league as per yards per play. Arizona just gained 4.7 yards pre-play from Detroit and also gave up 6 yards per play defense to the Lions in a 27-27 tie for Kyle Murray’s Cardinals in Week 1.
My blended power ratings using Net Yards per Play has Baltimore at 16.5pts greater than Arizona on a neutral area, 19.5pts better at home. If I am trying to rear even a street dog, or a puppy . This is not the opportunity. This line opened at -13.5 and has since moved back and forth between -13 and -13.5. With an almost handicap, I think that the Ravens have about 6pts of significance on them in this stage. After convincing myself that Arizona is a complete persona non-grata place.
Defensively, Baltimore permitted 10 points and 200 yards against an abysmal Miami Dolphins team, while the Cardinals were analyzed in Week 1. Arizona let 477 yards in a tie against the Lions and also 27pts. It took 22% of Detroit yards as to score only 6pts it required Miami of the yards for Baltimore. Baltimore needed just 10% of the entire yards to score 6pts against Miami in Week 1, where Arizona needed 22 percent of the total yards to score 6pts on Detroit. Baltimore has a +49.8% net efficiency benefit on Arizona in this one.

The distinct edge on both sides of the ball will be really for your Ravens here. I see something {similar to a 28-9 score, nothing seems really crazy but nevertheless a great whooping of a rookie QB and beginner trainer in their 2nd NFL match, against what looks like

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